China reevalueaza moneda si da tonul cresterii dobanzilor!

Posted: June 21, 2010 in Politica si politici
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China’s yuan surged Monday, sending a signal ahead of the G20 summit that China will allow more currency flexibility (Reuters). China’s central bank has pegged the currency to the U.S. dollar since mid-2008, enduring Western criticism that the yuan is undervalued and gives China an unfair world trade advantage. The yuan rose by .45 percent to as high as 6.7969 per dollar–the biggest intraday rise since China revalued in 2005–after the central bank announced over the weekend that it would allow the yuan greater flexibility. The central bank ruled out a one-time revaluation of the currency, arguing it was close to fair value. Many economists expect the currency to continue to strengthen in coming days, though at a moderate pace. ( http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65I11B20100621 )

June 21 (Bloomberg) — Global stocks gained for a 10th day, sending the MSCI World Index to its longest rally in 11 months, oil and copper soared and Treasuries retreated after China said it will relax the yuan’s fixed rate to the dollar.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.6 percent to 1,123.68 and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed to the highest level since May 3 at 12:20 p.m. in New York. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index jumped 2.6 percent, the most in more than two weeks. Oil exceeded $78 a barrel and copper rallied to help lead gains in commodities. The Korean won strengthened as the yen and dollar fell against most major currencies, while the 10-year Treasury yield surged 4 basis points to 3.26 percent.

Stocks rallied from Tokyo to New York after the People’s Bank of China said it will end a two-year currency peg adopted during the global financial crisis to protect exporters, a sign policy makers expect the world economy to strengthen. China, the world’s largest copper consumer and second-biggest user of oil after the U.S., signaled the change before the G-20 summit in Toronto on June 26 to 27. ( http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZgkWZQZDt80&pos=1 )

Ce poate insemna asta? China va ridica nivelul dobanzilor!

In spatele primirii calduroase pe care cancelariile guvernelor din intreaga lume a primit decizia Chinei de a liberaliza (partial) cursul de schimb intre yuan si dolar, se ascund viitoare probleme serioase pe care guvernul SUA le va avea in a-si finanta deficitul.

Atata timp cat China a avut monea legata la un curs fix de dolar, si a cumparat in draci USD si obligatiuni americane pentru a-si sustine cursul subevaluat, americanii nu prea au avut probleme in plasarea titlurilor pentru a obtine banii necesari pentru finantarea datoriei.

Odata lasat liber cursul, chinezii nu vor mai fi la fel de “cointeresati” in a cumpara titluri americane. Asta inseamna ca americanii nu vor mai gasi la fel de usor cumparatori pentru titlurile emise pentru sustinerea deficitului. Pentru a le face atractive in fata investitorilor, SUA si FED-ul se vor trezi nevoite sa majoreze randamentele respectivelor obligatiuni, adica sa creasca dobanzile la care le vor scoate la vanzare.

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