The euro area sovereign debt crisis is threatening to escalate at a frightening pace, as liquidity and solvency concerns continue to weigh on peripheral member states. There is a risk that if Europe’s policymakers do not act sufficiently quickly, contagion could spread to the region’s larger economies, adding to financing pressures and raising fears over the stability of the European banking system.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s central forecast is that Portugal will have to follow Ireland and Greece in requesting emergency EU/IMF funding, but that Spain will not and that the euro area will continue to hold together.
However, the mammoth challenges that lie ahead in terms of countries implementing painful fiscal austerity and agreeing a euro-wide consensus on radical institutional reform point to a period fraught with risk. This article explores a number of scenarios whereby the current turmoil could ultimately lead to a break-up of the euro area, and examines some of the myriad of implications that this could bring.
Materialul in intregime, aici: