Cererea de aur a scăzut în T2 2012 cu 7%, dar băncile centrale au cumpărat de două ori mai mult aur decât în T2 2011

Posted: August 17, 2012 in Politica si politici
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Cererea  de aur în cel de-al doilea trimestru al anului 2012 a ajuns la nivelul de 990 tone, respectiv 51,2 miliarde de dolari. Cererea din sectorul bijuteriilor, investiţiilor şi din sectorul tehnologic a slăbit prin comparaţie cu perioada similară a anului trecut, dar a fost compensată de achiziţiile masive realizate de băncile centrale.

Pieţele din China şi India au influenţat major evoluţiile înregistrate la nivel global, iar Rusia se afirmă tot mai serios ca un jucător de calibru în acest domeniu, banca centrală a Rusiei dublându-şi rezerva de aur de-a lungul ultimilor cinci ani.

Cererea de aur la nivel global în cel de-al doilea trimestru al anului 2012 a fost de 990 de tone, cu 7% sub volumul din cel de-al doilea trimestru al anului 2011. Scăderea cantităţii de aur cerute în industria tehnologică, a industriei bijuteriilor sau cea a investiţiilor a fost compensată de cererea de aur venită din partea entităţilor publice.

Raportul World Gold Council Gold Demands Trends Q2 2012 NOU – GDT_Q2_2012

Oferta de aur a scăzut în cel de-al doilea trimestru al anului cu 6% faţă de aceeaşi perioadă a anului trecut, în special ca urmare a scăderii ofertei de aur provenit din activităţi de reciclare. Preţul mediu trimestrial a fost de 1609,4 dolari pe uncie, cu 7% peste media trimestrului doi al anului trecut. Pe ansamblul primei jumătăţi de an, cererea de aur a fost de 2090,8 tone cu 5% mai mică decât cea din aceeaşi perioadă a anului trecut, dar cu 14% peste media semestrială a ultimilor cinci ani, care a fost de 188,7 tone.

Al doilea trimestru al anului a fost o perioadă de achiziţii semnificative de aur făcute de instituţiile publice – precum băncile centrale sau alte instituţii financiare transnaţionale – care au cumpărtat 157,5 tone de metal preţios. Un record al achiziţiilor, din trimestrul doi 2009 (moment în care băncile centrale au devenit cumpărători neţi de aur) până în prezent, şi totodată un volum aproape dublu faţă de cele 66,2 tone – reprezentând volumul achiziţiilor realizate în aceeaşi perioadă a lui 2011. La nivelul primei jumătăţi a anului, cantitatea de aur tranzacţionată a fost de 254,2 tone, cu 25% mai mult decât în aceeaşi perioadă a anului trecut (203,2 tone). Achiziţiile realizate de băncile centrale reprezintă 16% din cererea totală de pe piaţă în trimestrul doi 2012.

Gold demand has decreased by 7% in Q2 2012. Central banks has doubled theirs acquisitions.

Second quarter gold demand of 990 tonnes was worth an estimated US$51,2bn. Demand in jewellery, investment and technology sectors weakened from year/earlier levels, declines that were partly offset by an acceleration in buying by central banks. India and China had a strong influence on global consumer demand, due Rusia is palyng an increasingly prominent role in the global gold market. Gold demand for the second quarter of 2012 measured 990 tones, 7% below year-earlier levels. Weaker demand from the jewellery, investment and technology sector was offset to some extent by a surge in buyng by the official sector. The supply of gold declined 6% year-on-year, mainly due to lower levels of recycling.

Raportul World Gold Council Gold Demands Trends Q2 2012 NOU – GDT_Q2_2012

The gold price averaged US 1609,40/oz during quarter, 7% above the average Q2 2011 price. Consequently, there was only a marginal 1% year-on-year decline in value of gold demand to US51,2bn. Loking at the first half of 2012, gold demand of 2090,8 tones was 5% down on the previous year and 14% above the five –year H1 average of 1828,7 tones.

Second quarter investment demand (total bar and coin demand plus ETFs and similar products) weakened 23% to 302,0 tones, worth a value of US$15,6 bn. Investment demand for the first half of the year reached 709,4 tones, 3% below the corresponding period in 2011. However, the longer term trend remains firm: H1 2012 was 15% above the five-years H1 average figure of 617,4 tones and investment remained well within the higher range that has been in place since Q32008. All elements of investment declined, with the exception of official coins category, which was buoyed by strong demand in the one or two key countries.

Total investment (including OTC investment and stock flows) was down 19% from the year-earlier levels, although demand of 361,6 tones was 4% above the five-year quarterly average of 348,8 tones.

Total bar and coin demand of 302 tonnes was down 10% year-on-year, partly reflecting the comparison with a very robust Q2 2011. The decline in this sector of demand is also heavily skewed by demand in India and China. These two markets  accounted for a combined 36% of the global gold bar and coin market in Q2; excluding them from the total data gives a notably different result: a 16% year-on-year increase in demand to 195,2 tones. Outside of those two markets, investment demand declined in only four countries.

Demand in ETF-s and similar products in Q2 was broadly flat year-on-year, ad new demand was marginally outweighed by selling. The lackluster net figure as reflective of the directionless price action in gold, which encouraged profit-taking and bargain-hunting in equal measure.

Central banks acquisitions

The second quarter was another period of significant purchasing by official sector institutions, with demand amounting to 157,5 tonnes. This was a record quarter for central bank buying since the sector began recording net purchases in Q2 2009 and was more than double the 66,2 tones of purchases made in the same period of 2011. Purchases in the first half of the year totaled 254,2 tones 25% up on 203,2 tonnes from the same period last year. The official sector accounted for 16% of overall Q2 demand.

Some central banks have clearly indicated their intention to bolster gold reserves. One such institution is the National Bank of Kazakhstan, which stated in July that it had increased its 2012 target for gold purchases from 24,5 tonnes to 26 tonnes. The bank has previously stated that it plans to buy the country’s entire domestic production over the next two to three years in order to reduce its reliance on the US dollar as a reserve asset, confirming that it is targeting an allocation to gold of 15% of its foreign exchanges reserves.

Russia’s programme of buying saw he central bank add a further 22,3 tonnes to its reserves during April to June period. Total gold reserves at the end of the period stood at around 920 tones, roughly equal to 9% of total reserves.


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