A iesit raportul de toamna al FMI World Economic Outlook! Deloc optimist daca ne gandim ca titlul raportului este “Provocarea supraindatorarii si a cresterii economice lente ” iar sumarul raportului incepe cu modificarea estimarii de crestere economica pentru 2013 de la 2% la 1,5% si continua cu provocarea careia Spania si Italia trebuie sa-I faca fata: aceea ce a recapitalize sectorul bancar fara a-si mari datoria publica.
The recovery continues, but it has weakened. In advanced economies, growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment. And in major emerging market economies, growth that had been strong earlier has also decreased. Relative to our April 2012 forecasts, our forecasts for 2013 growth have been revised from 2.0 percent down to 1.5 percent for advanced economies, and from 6.0 percent down to 5.6 percent for emerging market and developing economies.
Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging market and developing economies, through both trade and financial channels, adding to homegrown weaknesses. As was the case in 2009, trade channels are surprisingly strong, with, for example, lower exports accounting for most of the decrease in growth in China.
Alternative risk-off and risk-on episodes, triggered by progress and regress on policy action, especially in the euro area, are triggering volatile capital flows. Turning to policy action, the main focus continues to be the euro area. Here, there has been a clear change in attitudes, and a new architecture is being put in place.
The lessons of the past few years are now clear. Euro area countries can be hit by strong, country-specific, adverse shocks. Weak banks can considerably amplify the adverse effects of such shocks. And, if it looks like the sovereign itself might be in trouble, sovereign-bank interactions can further worsen the outcome.
Interesant este insa ceea ce FMI spune, in aceeasi nota introductive, despre Spania si Italia:
In the short term, however, more immediate measures are needed. Spain and Italy must follow through with adjustment plans that reestablish competitiveness and fiscal balance and maintain growth. To do so, they must be able to recapitalize their banks without adding to their sovereign debt. And they must be able to borrow at reasonable rates.
Mai multe informatii, grafice si cifre, in raportul mentionat …. FMI World Economic Outlook October 2012