De ce sa cumperi actiuni pe pietele Europei emergente …

Posted: December 19, 2012 in Diverse
Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

s98v5n1-titleEurosymbol_1866222bIntre criza asiatica din ’97-’98 si actuala criza europeana, exista numeroase similitudini. Si diferente! Una peste alta insa, o paralela intre cele doua crize arata ca Europa este pe cale sa-si revina, iar pietele de actiuni sunt tot mai bune de cumparat.

Un material interesant din Financial Times.

… The Asian experience shows that one of the strongest signals of recovery in crisis-torn countries is the return of the current account to surplus. That is the point when the economy is generating the income to pay down foreign debts. By early 1998 – when pundits were casting east Asia’s troubles as a threat to the global economy – the end was in sight because current account balances were back in surplus.

Peripheral Europe is approaching the same point. Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy are on track to shift into current account surplus next year. Europe is also making the necessary, painful adjustment in labour costs. Measured from recent peaks, unit labour costs have fallen roughly 7 per cent in Spain, Portugal and Greece. The star, however, is Ireland where a 17-percentage-point swing has created the first current account surplus in peripheral Europe at 9 per cent of GDP. Unit labour costs, meanwhile, are down 18 per cent from their peak….

…. Watching the crisis in Europe I cannot help but recall the drama that unfolded in Asia in 1997 and 1998. Fear of insolvency seized Bangkok and spread to Jakarta, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur, triggering fiery protests and chasing off investors. The total value of the Thai stock market fell to $30bn – less than Chrysler’s market capitalisation.

Today, in equity market terms at least, peripheral Europe is suffering a similar fate. At $42bn, the aggregate capitalisation of the Greek stock market is less than Costco, the US warehouse discount store. The same basic arithmetic applies to Ireland, Spain, Portugal and even Italy, where the stock market now has a total value about the same as Apple’s.

The point is not to disparage troubled Europe, quite the opposite. There is value in many of these markets. Since hitting their bottom in 1998 east Asian markets have surged tenfold in dollar terms, marking that year as a huge buying opportunity….. 

…. Compared with the trend in gross domestic product growth in the decade preceding the crisis, Greek GDP is now 28 per cent lower than expected, similar to Thailand which at its low was 30 per cent below trend; Ireland is as hard hit as Indonesia, while Spain, 16 per cent off trend, is 3 percentage points worse off than Malaysia.

Peripheral Europe is approaching the same point. Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy are on track to shift into current account surplus next year. Europe is also making the necessary, painful adjustment in labour costs. Measured from recent peaks, unit labour costs have fallen roughly 7 per cent in Spain, Portugal and Greece. The star, however, is Ireland where a 17-percentage-point swing has created the first current account surplus in peripheral Europe at 9 per cent of GDP. Unit labour costs, meanwhile, are down 18 per cent from their peak….

….The recovery in Europe will come. Today, the average ratio of stock market value to GDP worldwide is about 80 per cent; in peripheral Europe, this ratio ranges from 23 per cent in Greece to 38 per cent in Portugal, close to where their Asian counterparts were in 1998. One way to think about the future of Europe is to ponder this question: can Italy be worth no more than Apple?

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