China si-a supra-estimat PIB-ul cu circa 1.000 de miliarde de dolari

Posted: August 19, 2013 in Burse, Politica si politici, Proiect "de Romania"
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Estimarile oficiale ale PIB-ului chinez pentru anul trecut, “dau” un produs intern brut de circa 8,3 mii de miliarde de dolari … si o crestere de circa 7%. Un studiu recenta arata insa ca, cele mai mari si mai negre temeri ale analistilor, care se temeau de faptul ca oficialii chinezi ar putea raporta date eronate, sunt intemeiate. PIB-ul Chinei este umflat cu cel putin 1.000 de miliarde de dolari … ceea ce inseamna si ca rata de crestere ar fi mai degraba de 6% … mai mica decat cea estimata/raportata oficial – care este de peste 7%.

Baseline Chinese economic data is unreliable. Taking published National Bureau of Statistics China data on the components of consumer price inflation, I attempt to reconcile the official data to third party data. Three problems are apparent in official NBSC data on inflation. First, the base data on housing price inflation is manipulated. According to the NBSC, urban private housing occupants enjoyed a total price increase of only 6% between 2000 and 2011.

How Badly Flawed is Chinese Economic Data? The Opening Bid is $1 Trillion

 

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