Pe extern indicii sunt la maxime istorice … si par a se incapatana sa ramana acolo! Pe intern, dupa cresterea abrupta de dupa incheierea ofertei Romgaz (determinata de restul de bani ramasi investitorilor … dar si de entuziasmul/efuziunea de dupa “succesul” IPO-uril – succes masurat in gradul de suprasubscriere (in special pe transa mica!) … piata/indicii continua sa se tina neasteptat – zic eu! … de bine! Mai vine corectia?
Astept SIF2 in 1.2620, SIF3 in 0,6175 si SIF5 in 1,7140 … si parca as mai astepta si FP-ul inca odata sub 0,8 spre 0,76 … fara a si insa sigur ca sunt prea multe sanse!
Si totusi …. pana la finele saptamanii astia ar trebui sa se aranjeze cumva apele. Marti a iesit Bernanke, astazi (miercuri – trebuie sa vina datele de retail sales … si inca ceva pe SUA) iar maine (sau tot azi) – mai sunt niste iesiri de bancheri centrali … speranta mea este ca vreunul dintre ei vor spune nescai chestii (sau datele ce urmeaza sa apara vor arata niste lucruri) – care, vor fi interpretate de analisti/jurnalisti ca fiind nashpa … sau macar usor nashpa … astfel incat, elementele ce sunt/pot fi motive de reale de ingrijorare pentru piete – sa inceapa sa se ancoreze in mentalul ingrijorarii colective.
Care ar putea fi aceste elemente … care sa submineze/tempereze elanul taurilor si sa-i aduca pe ursi la putere – macar pentru cateva zile ….!? Ei bine … unul, si poate cel mai important este faptul ca OECD a redus perspectivele de crestere economica la nivel global in special pe seama estimarilor de scadere semnificativa a ratei de crestere economica a statelor/economiilor emergente.
Un alt motiv ar putea fi acela ca deciziile luate de comunistii chinezi – care si-au facut un plan ambitios de liberalizare a vietii economice (si nu numai!) in China … un plan/proiect care a ridicat indicele ce reflecta evolutia companiilor chineze de pe bursa din Hong Kong cu circa 6% in doar vreo 2-3 zile … s-ar putea dovedi a nu fi altceva decat praf in ochii pietelor … praf aruncat de oficialii chinezi care spera sa adoarma astfel, cel putin pentru un timp, eventualele temeri ale acestora cu privire la o posibila aterizare mai brusca decat ar fi de dorit/de suportat … a economiei chineze. Una peste alta … planul maret s-ar putea dovedi – sau ar putea fi interpretat pana la urma ca nefiind chiar atat de minunat in conditiile in care implementarea sa, nu doar ca ar necesita ani sau zeci de ani … dar ar avea de surmontat si o serie de probleme sistemice pentru care nu se prea vad rezolvari.
Ar fi de dorit/de asteptat ca saptamana asta, pana la final, pietele sa ia in calcul o astfel de ipoteza mai putin “luminoasa” si sa se reaseze … macar putin!!!
Un alt element ce ar mai trebui avut in vedere de piete … este o posibila tot mai brutala si evidenta mascare/falsificare a datelor statistice … si nu … nu neaparat doar de chinezi … ci culmea – chiar de americani! Tema e interesant si bine tratata de Rechea in ziarul Bursa: “Ieri a ieşit la iveală, însă, o “inginerie statistică” aplicată unui indicator fundamental al economiei Statelor Unite. Cotidianul New York Post a publicat, pe prima pagină, un articol în care se arată că “Census Bureau a falsificat datele privind numărul locurilor de muncă înainte de alegerile prezidenţiale din 2012”.“
Intre timp, Ichan – celebrul miliardar american … nu pierde nici o ocazie pentru a ne spune ca se asteapta la o corectie … dealtfel, iesirea acestuia de ieri (azi-noapte ora Ro) ar fi, potrivit jurnalistilor FT, unul dintre motivele pentru care pietele/indicii americani s-au intors un pic ieri din maxime …. “Some in the markets attributed Wall Street’s late sell-off on Monday to bearish comments from Carl Icahn, the activist investor – although several analysts noted the S&P had turned lower well before his remarks were reported.”
Mai jos materialul …
Tuesday 21.05 GMT. Caution was the watchword in world stock markets as investors awaited further clues about when the Federal Reserve might start scaling back its economic stimulus measures and uncertainty mounted about the outlook for the global economy.
A general lack of fresh catalysts left Wall Street drifting following its recent strong performance, and the S&P 500 equity index closed 0.2 per cent lower at 1,787 – a day after it broke above the 1,800 level for the first time, only to stage a late retreat.
Across the Atlantic, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index closed with a loss of 0.7 per cent and the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo slipped 0.3 per cent.
Some in the markets attributed Wall Street’s late sell-off on Monday to bearish comments from Carl Icahn, the activist investor – although several analysts noted the S&P had turned lower well before his remarks were reported.
But Mr Icahn’s view that US stocks could see a “big drop”, because earnings at many companies had been fuelled more by low borrowing costs than by management efforts to boost results, did generate some debate among market watchers.
“American corporations are far from being as simple and as shallow as Mr Icahn suggested yesterday,” said Stephen Pope at Spotlight Ideas. “They have booked great gains over the past two years, not by simply using cheap capital when it is available. The gains have built on innovation, good governance and rewarding investors with good dividends paid for by solid profitability.”
Analysts at BNP Paribas noted that US equity valuations were hovering around 2007 levels.
“According to Bloomberg data, the S&P 500 trailing price/earnings ratio of 17 times matches that of June 2007,” they said. “The forward p/e ratio at 16 times is also equivalent to 2007.
“While an interesting historical moment – and perhaps a warning – relative valuations for US equities versus bonds are still very attractive versus 2007 levels. Should the ‘lower yields for longer’ environment persist, there is every reason to believe that equity valuations can move higher yet.”
Meanwhile, there were some worries about the broader economic picture after the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its forecasts for global growth this year and next, citing a slowdown in emerging markets and concerns over the US debt ceiling and the Federal Reserve “tapering” its asset purchases.
However, Andrew Kenningham at Capital Economics pointed out that as the OECD only published forecasts once every six months, the latest numbers were being compared to those published in May.
“As such they tell us nothing we did not already know,” he said. “The reduction since then is almost entirely due to the OECD catching up with the fact that growth in emerging economies has slowed.”
Fresh light could be shed on the prospects for the Fed’s asset purchase programme on Wednesday, when the minutes of its October policy meeting are published.
Investors will be looking for any hints that the US central bank might lower the target unemployment level at which it would consider raising interest rates.
US government bond prices slipped ahead of the release of the minutes, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury up 3 basis points at 2.71 per cent.
The Bund yield rose 3bp to 1.72 per cent after the German ZEW economic sentiment index rose to 54.6 in November from 52.8, the strongest reading since late 2009. Analysts suggested the recent improvement had been driven by the strong recent performance of the Xetra Dax stock index, which hit a record high on Monday.
The rise in US yields did little to help the dollar, which was down 0.2 per cent against a weighted basket of currencies .
The Australian dollar rose 0.5 per cent against its US counterpart following the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting.
“Not for the first time, the RBA described the Aussie as ‘uncomfortably high’ and suggested that a weaker currency was still needed to support the rebalancing of the economy,” said Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro.
“For now, it appears that markets are thinking the RBA is pretty powerless to push the currency down beyond the use of words.”
In commodities markets, copper rallied off a three-month low, ending just 0.1 per cent softer in London at $6,970 a tonne. Brent oil settled at $106.92 a barrel, down $1.55. Gold was up $1 at $1,275 an ounce.
Dar, prin comparatie cu semnele de intrebare ridicate de Ichan – semnele de exclamare puse de Bernanke dupa aproape fiecare propozitie/declaratie … par a fi in continuare cu mult mai convingatoare! Mai jos un material de pe Bloomberg in care se amintite si interpretate declaratiile lui Bernanke de azi-noapte!
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the labor market has shown “meaningful improvement” since the start of the central bank’s bond-buying program and that the benchmark interest rate will probably stay low long after the purchases end.
“The target for the federal funds rate is likely to remain near zero for a considerable time after the asset purchases end, perhaps well after” the jobless rate falls below the Fed’s 6.5 percent threshold, Bernanke said today in a speech to economists in Washington. He said a “preponderance of data” would be needed to begin removing accommodation.
Fed officials will weigh both the “cumulative progress” since they began the third round of bond buying in September 2012 as well as “the prospect for continued gains” as they evaluate the outlook for the labor market, Bernanke said. While recent job reports have been “somewhat disappointing,” the unemployment rate has fallen 0.8 percentage point during the program and about 2.6 million payroll jobs have been added, he said.
Policy makers are debating how to slow the pace of asset purchases without causing a surge in interest rates that could jeopardize the more than four-year economic expansion. Central bankers have sought to convince investors that tapering the $85 billion monthly pace of bond purchases wouldn’t signal that an increase in the benchmark interest rate is any closer.
When the Fed does slow asset purchases, “it will likely be because the economy has progressed sufficiently” for central bankers to rely more on guidance about the outlook for the main interest rate, Bernanke said.
“He’s saying that they achieved improvement in labor market conditions, but they’re still uncertain whether that progress will be sustained without all their support,” said Laura Rosner, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York and a former researcher at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed after Bernanke’s comments, with the December contract at 1,785.60 as of 8:24 p.m. in New York. Japan’s benchmark stock index, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average, fell 0.1 percent to 15,116.57.
Bernanke said in response to audience questions that the central bank’s policies are helping the American middle class by supporting housing, strengthening financial markets and shoring up consumers’ balance sheets.
“Our objectives are squarely tied to Main Street,” he said. “The economy has been growing, jobs have been coming back and the Fed has been an important factor in maintaining that momentum.”
Bernanke’s testimony to Congress in May that the Fed “could take a step down” in its bond purchases helped push Treasury 10-year yields and 30-year mortgage rates to two-year highs and wiped out more than $5 trillion in market capitalization from global stocks.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 2.71 percent at 5 p.m. in New York, down from a two-year high of 3 percent in September. The average rate for a 30-year mortgage was 4.35 percent last week, declining from a two-year high in August, Freddie Mac data show.
Bernanke said in his remarks today that interest rates rose too high over the summer, due in part to “a perceived reduction in the Fed’s commitment to meeting its objectives.” That increase “was neither welcome nor warranted,” Bernanke said.
The FOMC’s decision in September to refrain from slowing its buying surprised investors who had forecast the first tapering of the program. The purchases have pumped up the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $3.91 trillion.
Bernanke said that “although the FOMC’s decision came as a surprise to some market participants, it appears to have strengthened the credibility of the committee’s forward rate guidance” and said that the decline in interest rates since September is “more consistent” with that guidance.
The Federal Open Market Committee last month renewed its pledge to press on with bond purchases until the outlook for the labor market has “improved substantially.” The Fed probably won’t taper purchases until its March 18-19 policy meeting, according to the median of 32 economist estimates in a Bloomberg News survey Nov. 8. Unemployment last month was 7.3 percent.
Bernanke’s term as chairman ends on Jan. 31, and Vice Chairman Janet Yellen has been nominated to succeed him. Bernanke signaled that his views are similar to the ones she expressed in her confirmation hearing on Nov. 14 before the Senate Banking Committee.
“I agree with the sentiment, expressed by my colleague Janet Yellen at her testimony last week, that the surest path to a more normal approach to monetary policy is to do all we can today to promote a more robust recovery,” he said.
Yellen told lawmakers last week that job-market gains would arise from stronger economic growth, which was running at a 2.8 percent rate last quarter. Fed officials forecast a 2 percent to 2.3 percent expansion for 2013, compared with a 1.7 percent estimate released today by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Kearns in Washington at email@example.com; Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at firstname.lastname@example.org
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz at email@example.com