The euro area’s growth prospects over the coming decade … sau provocarile Europei urmatorilor 10 ani

Posted: February 20, 2014 in Politica si politici, Proiect "de Romania"
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As the euro area starts to show signs of an economic turnaround, with growth expected to pick up gradually in 2014 and 2015, now is perhaps a good time to assess the longer term prospects for the area as a whole.

The European economy is showing signs of a turnaround from the economic and financial crisis.

However, this has not been an ordinary cyclical downturn, as macroeconomic imbalances accumulated

over many years. It is also not an ordinary cyclical upswing and return to growth.

Read more: The euro area’s growth prospects over the coming decade


Structural trends in Europe have been weakening since the mid-1990s, most notably visible in total factor productivity. In

addition, the credit boom that started in the early-2000s brought a misallocation of investment and

resources, which now poses an additional weight on the recovery. The profound structural challenges in

Europe are gradually being corrected. But the reallocation of resources remains slow, given the

necessary deleveraging, the structural rigidities and the remaining weaknesses in the banking sector.

Persistent efforts remain necessary to reverse long-lasting trends and to counter the forthcoming

impact of ageing populations on growth. This chapter presents a simulation based on a “do-nothing”-

scenario under which, over the coming decade, growth rates would be substantially lower than those

enjoyed in the decade prior to the financial crisis, averaging less than 1%, which is about half the rate

projected for the US. However, the chapter also shows that the euro area has enormous potential for

catch-up growth, compared with the US. Consequently, with the introduction of a range of per capita

income enhancing structural reforms, focussed in particular on the many unexploited growth

opportunities linked to both labour and TFP, policy makers could significantly improve future growth

prospects and ease the fiscal strains which any permanent deterioration in income growth inevitably

implies. Over the last years with the reinforced economic governance, a strong framework has been

created for advancing on the path of reforms, and Member States should implement the

recommendations made to them.


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