Nu au trecut mai mult de 2-3 ani de cand politicieni si analisti celebrii de prin toata lumea ne spuneau cu mare emfaza ca vremea occidentului, in frunte cu SUA a apus, si ca noile puteri economice si politice care se intrevedeau la orizont – Brazilia, Rusia, India si China, denumite generic BRIC, vor conduce si domina lumea.
Astazi vedem ca lucrurile nu stau deloc asa! BRIC – ul, cu exceptia Indiei poate, se afla intr-o situatie mai proasta ca niciodata … in timp ce SUA, ca exponent si lider al civilizatiei si sistemului economic occidental, sunt, spre deosebire, intr-o situatie mai buna ca oricand si a oricui altcuiva!
Este adevarat ca impotriva acestor realitati evidente, pot fi aduse ca argumente o sumedenie de cifre, analize, pareri bulversante – care sustin ca “occidentul” este acum mai adancit in groapa cu probleme (in special probleme ce tin de datoria publica si cele generate de asa-zisa amplificare a diferentelor dintre bogati si saraci!) …
Privite simplu insa, atat din perspectiva unui specialist in economie, cat si din perspectiva omului obisnuit, situatia este clara: modelul economic occidental (cu exponentii sai SUA, Marea Britanie si/sau UE) este cel care ofera in prezent cele mai mari parti a populatiei sale un statut socio-economic net superior celui oferite de oricare alt model concurent … si care ofera totodata cel mai bun suport, in termeni de resurse si/sau soft si hard power, pozitionarii superioare a occidentului in raport cu restul lumii.
Restul sunt povesti!
Cam care era situatia noastra daca acum 2-3-4 ani renuntam la a ne pozitiona alaturi de Occident si imbratisam marotele strangerii relatiilor (economice si politice!) cu asa-zisele “noi puteri globale”? Nu-i chiar greu de ghicit!
Vorbind de “ghicit” … era oare chiar atat de dificil de “ghicit” / observat / calculat … ca BRIC-ul nu prea mai este ce-a fost … si ca, in realitate, viitorul nu-i prea apartine? Sau cel putin nu atat de repede si atat de hotarat pe cat i se prognoza de catre unii analisti/specialisti?
Probabil ca nu! Unul dintre articolele relevante pe aceasta tema este publicat in Economiaonline chiar in perioada in care puterea si maretia BRIC-ului era vazuta in media a se afla la cote maxime.
Daca in momentele de maxima amplitudine a crizei care a pus pe butuci lumea dezvoltata economiile BRIC inregistrau maximul lor de anvergura, pe masura ce tensiunile slabesc in spatiul economic occidental, economiile fanion ale statelor emergente incep sa-si arate slabiciunile. Fie ca sunt de date de modelul de crestere economica, fie de problemele de natura politica sau sociala, dificultatile cu care economiile BRIC se vad nu doar in miscari de strada, ca in Brazilia, sau in reducerea ratelor de crestere economica, dar si in evolutia unor indicatori economici de referinta, precum indicii bursieri sau ratele CDS-urilor.
Multi ani, inca dinainte de anul 2001 cand a fost lansat termenul de BRIC, si pana recent – si mai ales in ultimii ani, cand criza economica inceputa in 2008 a fost in plina derulare prin lumea dezvoltata – tari precum Brazilia, Rusia, India, China sau Africa de Sud (din initialele primelor patru fiind format acronimul BRIC la care, in 2010 a fost adaugat “S”-ul de la “South Africa”, transformandu-se in BRICS) au fost creditate cu o capacitate aproape inepuizabila de a creste economic, fiind, nu de putine ori numite “salvatoare” ale lumii, si ale economiilor occidentale dezvoltate, care, prin comparatie erau (si sunt inca!) considerate a se afla in pragul colapsului.
BRIC, si ulterior BRICS au fost adevarati campioni timp de mai bine de doua decenii, iar cresterile economice spectaculoase, impreuna cu o majorare accelerata a ponderii si influentei acestora in economia – si astfel, in politica globala, au fost printre argumentele acelor tot mai multi investitori si analisti pentru care BRICS-ul ilustreaza o noua paradigma economica (si politica!): un model imun la “bolile” modelului economic occidental; un model care va permite statelor/economiilor amintite sa ia locurile ocupate, inca, de mari economii occidentale.
PROGNOZE …. O astfel de perspectiva este, aparent, bine ancorata in evolutiile trecute – care arata ca jucatorii majori ai lumii in curs de dezvoltare au recuperat masiv din decalajele care-i desparteau de “rivalii” lor din lumea dezvoltata – evolutii pe baza carora s-au facut numeroase prognoze, care mai de care mai spectaculoase si mai sumbre pentru lumea occidentala.
Printr-o extrapolarea acestor trenduri, in care, pe de o parte BRIC-ul inregistra noi maxime de crestere economica, iar pe de alta parte Vestul se adancea in criza, nu putine au fost rapoartele care prognozau caderea Vestului si/sau ascensiunea Chinei, spre exemplu; pe acest rationament, economia Chinei urma/urmeaza a o depasi pe cea a Statelor Unite pana la finele acestui deceniu (2016 sau 2019 , in functie de studii ) sau cel tarziu pana in 2030 (potrivit unui studiu realizat la inceputul anului 2013 de Price Waterhouse Coopers).
Doar ca, aceste prognoze dau imagine incompleta asupra realitatii. Spre exemplu, chiar daca PIB-ul chinez l-ar depasi pe cel american ca valoare absoluta, calculat ca PIB pe cap de locuitor insa, Statele Unite stau inca mult in fata oricareia dintre statele BRICS. Iar prognozele FMI arata ca aceasta distanta se va mentine pentru mult timp de aici inainte. ….. “
Continuarea aici …
Care este situatia acum? La doar 2 ani distanta? Iata cateva articole relevante!
- Russia Is On The Dawn of a Prolonged Recession
According to the World Bank’s latest Russian Economic Report, Russian investment is set to contract for the second year in a row. With capital expensive and demand dubious, private investors are cutting back as a restricted budget has forced the Russian government to delay several large infrastructure projects such as a building highways in Crimea.
Expected to contract by 3.8% in 2015 and 0.3% in 2016, as oil prices remain low, the prospects for Russian economic growth are “dim”.
Although this recession, caused by “deep structural problems” in the Russian economy, has been avoided so far despite the critical economic sanctions and geopolitic uncertainties of 2014, the low cost of crude has proven to be too much for the economy to handle. “The slump in oil prices, only began to affect the economy in the final quarter of last year,” said Birgit Hansl, main author of the Report, “and the impact is likely to be more profound in 2015 and 2016.” The policies put in place by the Russian government and the Central Bank that have stabilized the economy so far, can not win the battle against negative consumption from declining wages.”
- Is China About to Plunge the World into Recession?
FP asked four experts to weigh in on the RMB devaluation and China’s sinking stock markets.
On Aug. 18, China’s stock market plummeted by a vertigo-inducing 6.2 percent in one day of trading, part of a months-long decline that’s erased over $3 trillion worth of market value from the country’s equity markets. That followed last week’s surprise decision to allow the value of the renminbi (RMB), China’s currency, to fall several percentage points against the U.S. dollar, which some view as a move intended to aid Chinese exports as the country’s economy flags. Global markets have appeared rattled, with major media outlets repeatedly invoking the specter of financial “contagion” from falling Chinese stocks and with major equity indices of the world’s biggest economies mostly retrenching in the days following the recent RMB devaluation.
How real is the threat of a global recession led by a deteriorating Chinese economy? Foreign Policy asked several experts to respond to the recent hand-wringing. Stephen Roach, of the Yale School of Management, was previously Morgan Stanley’s chief economist; Patrick Chovanec is chief strategist and managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management and an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs; Derek Scissors is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; Daniel Rosen is partner and co-founder of the Rhodium Group, an advisory company, and an adjunct professor at Columbia University’s Graduate School of International and Public Affairs.
Foreign Policy: If and when a China-led recession happens, how might it differ in its particulars from previous global recessions — that is, what might a “recession with Chinese characteristics” look like?
Stephen Roach: The outpouring of concern over the likelihood of a Chinese recession is vastly overblown, in my view. Yes, China is struggling with a number of complex problems — the downside of a major equity bubble, excesses in its property market, deleveraging from a debt-intensive growth spurt in the aftermath of the Great Crisis of 2008-2009, and a decline in exports stemming mainly from sluggish growth in its major trading partners in the developed world.
For the rest of the world, this powerful shift in the basic structure of China’s growth model — from a focus on production to an emphasis on consumption — feels very much like a recession. It puts especially severe pressures on resource-based economies (such as Australia, Brazil, and Canada) as well as on producers of components and parts (largely in East Asia) that drive exports through China-centric supply chains. The sharp correction in global commodity prices is a direct outgrowth of the cumulative weakening in China’s old model of commodity-intensive economic activity.
Overlooked is this seemingly recession-like contraction in the Old China is the emergence of a new and increasingly powerful source of economic growth — a shift to services-led activity. In 2014, China’s services-based tertiary sector rose to 48.2 percent of Chinese GDP — up four percentage points from 2010 and well in excess of the 42.6 percent share in the manufacturing- and construction-led secondary sector. Chinese urban job growth has averaged slightly over 13 million in 2013-2014 — fully 30 percent faster than what the government had been targeting at 10 million; moreover, the data flow in early 2015 suggests that urban job creation is holding near the impressive pace of recent years.
- Brazil’s Recession Marks The Beginning Of A Long, Painful Contraction
Brazil’s official dip into recession, confirmed Friday with new figures showing the economy contracted by 1.9 percent in the second quarter, caps off a particularly tough week in a gloomy year for the country. But the dismal numbers mark just the beginning of what analysts have predicted will be Brazil’s longest economic slump in more than eight decades, which is set to exacerbate the domestic turmoil that already has President Dilma Rousseff on the verge of ouster.
Economists had widely expected Friday’s output figures to show Brazil in a technical recession, but the decline was more severe than anticipated. Brazil had already slipped into a recession in the second quarter of 2014, but was able to eke out 0.1 percent growth for the year. This time the contraction is set to continue as Brazil’s economy remains on course to shrink by around 2 percent in 2015 and around 0.2 percent in 2016. That would mark the first time Brazil will have seen consecutive annual negative growth since the 1930s.
Friday’s numbers represent Brazil’s latest low point in an economic struggle that began four years ago amid falling commodity prices and slowing consumer demand. China emerged as Brazil’s top trading partner in 2009, fueling demand for Brazilian commodities like soybeans and iron ore. But that commodities boom began waning in 2011 as China’s rapid economic growth began to slow, and Brazil took a significant hit.
Brazil also failed to make the right moves to prevent its economic troubles from deepening over the years, analysts said. Rousseff’s government has ramped up spending over the past several years and cut interest rates dramatically, which made it easier for businesses to access cash but also spurred a rise in inflation.
“The government held off on making economic adjustments, painful economic adjustments, because they were in a tight election,” said Harold Trinkunas, director of the Latin America Initiative at Brookings.