Archive for the ‘Stock Track’ Category


The EU has in principle agreed a €7bn emergency loan to Greece, using a mothballed pan-European fund with special arrangements to shield Britain and other non-euro countries against any losses.

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BT MACRO FOCUS: FMI | Economia mondială va crește cu doar 3.4% an/an în 2014

Fondul Monetar Internațional (FMI) a publicat Update la Raportul Economoc

Mondial, intitulat „An Uneven Global Recovery Continues”.

Conform estimărilor FMI economia mondială a crescut cu aproximativ 2.75%

an/an în primul trimestru al anului curent, dinamică în decelerare de la

3.75% an/an în a doua jumătate a anului 2013 și, totodată, o evoluție sub

estimările elaborate de instituție în luna aprilie.

În primele luni din 2014 dinamica economiei mondiale a resimțit climatul

meteorologic nefavorabil din Statele Unite (care a determinat contracția

economiei americane), corecția din piața imobiliară a Chinei, precum și

tensiunile geopolitice (cu impact performanța economiei Rusiei), conform

acestui raport.

Cu toate acestea, FMI subliniază faptul că dinamica recentă a indicatorilor

macroeconomici și financiari pe mapamond exprimă premise de accelerare

economică începând cu trimestrul al doilea al anului curent: ratele de

dobândă pe termen lung au scăzut, piețele de acțiuni au continuat tendința

ascendentă, fluxurile de capital s-au reorientat spre piețele emergente,

indicatorii economici avansați s-au ameliorat, procesul de consolidare

bugetară din țările dezvoltate a continuat.

În acest context entitatea a revizuit scenariul macroeconomic central de

previziune pentru 2014 și 2015. Conform acestui scenariu, economia

mondială va crește cu doar 3.4% an/an în 2014 (ritm revizuit în scădere de la

3.7% an/an) și cu 4% an/an în 2015.

Previziunile FMI indică o accelerare a PIB-ului țărilor dezvoltate, de la 1.3%

an/an în 2013 la 1.8% an/an în 2014 și 2.4% an/an în 2015. În acest scenariu

prima economie a lumii (Statele Unite) va crește cu doar 1.7% an/an în 2014

și va accelera la 3% an/an în 2015. De asemenea, FMI previzionează că

economia Zonei Euro va accelera de la 1.1% an/an în 2014 la 1.5% an/an în

Economiile emergente și în dezvoltare ar urma să decelereze în 2014 la 4.6%

an/an (de la 4.7% an/an în 2013), pe fondul evoluțiilor nefavorabile din

Rusia, în contextul crizei geopolitice (creștere previzionată de doar 0.2%

an/an). Ulterior, PIB-ul acestor state ar putea accelera la 5.2% an/an în

2015. Pentru China (a doua economie a lumii) FMI previzionează decelerare

economică în 2014 (7.4% an/an) și 2015 (7.1% an/an).

În ceea ce privește economiile din Europa emergentă, FMI previzionează o

creștere de 2.8% an/an în 2014 (ritm similar cu cel din 2013) și de 2.9%

an/an în 2015.

Cu alte cuvinte, după cum se poate nota și în graficul alăturat (al treilea)

FMI previonează o dinamică economică relativ echilibrată pentru economia

mondială pe termen mediu (cel puțin comparativ cu ciclul economic

anterior, fapt reflectat de proiecțiile elaborate de instituție pentru binomul

investiții/economisire).

Printre principalii factori de risc pentru acest scenariu central FMI

previzionează: tensiunile geopolitice (conflictele din Ucraina și Orientul

Mijlociu) cu impact pentru cotațiile internaționale la țiței și alte bunuri;

posibilitatea unei majorări a ratelor de dobândă pe termen lung, dar și a

primei de risc pe piețele de acțiuni; riscul de cvasistagnare pe termen mediu

în economiile dezvoltate.

 

Romania
■ Conform INS productia agricola a atins un nivel record in 2013: 78.5 miliarde RON (17.8 miliarde EUR). In preturi comparabile indicatorul a crescut cu 24.5% an/an, notandu-se dinamica componentei vegetale: +38.8% an/an, la 53.8 miliarde RON.
■ Joi piata financiara a resimtit contextul extern, dar si proximitatea datei de plata a impozitelor lunare (25 iulie), iar vacanta de vara a determinat scaderea rulajelor.
■ In piata monetara se observa majorarea importanta a ratelor de dobanda pe scadente foarte scurte (overnight la 2.46%/2.96%) si cvasistagnare intre 3 luni – 1 an.
■ Curba randamentelor a stagnat in medie, cresterea la 6 luni fiind contrabalansata de declinul pe termen mediu. Rata de dobanda la titlurile de stat pe 10 ani a stagnat la nivelul minim istoric de 4.15%. Guvernul s-a imprumutat cu 300 milioane RON prin redeschiderea unei emisiuni cu scadenta in noiembrie 2013, la un cost mediu de 3.1%. Statul a atras deja 65% din suma vizata in iulie (4.1 miliarde RON).
■ Dupa deschiderea la 4.4170/4.4200 EUR/RON s-a depreciat gradual, spre 4.4000/4.4030 la inchidere, pe rulaje apropiate de media lunii si predominanta ordinelor de vanzare. La BNR cursul a scazut pentru a 3-a sedinta la rand, cu 0.3%.
■ Bursa a crescut usor joi, pe un rulaj de doar 5.2 milioane EUR. BET a crescut cu 0.4% la 6,955.1 puncte, iar BET-FI a inchis la 30,257.8 puncte (+0.6%).

 

 

DAILLY NEWS NBG SECURITIES: TOP HEADLINES

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             MoF sold RON300m in a reopening of 5-year T-Bonds maturing in 4 years at 3.10% avg yield /positive

             SIF Oltenia <SIF5> One group complied, but another two identified as acting in concert before the GSM on 28-Jul /neutral

             Fondul Proprietatea <FP> Completion of the third buy-back programme /neutral

 

MARKET SNAPSHOT

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Local equities climbed yesterday on a wave of positive sentiment (BET +0.4%, BET-FI +0.6%). Daily volumes stood at EUR5.2m (o/w EUR0.1m in deals), with EL, SNG, and three of the SIFs the most traded names. Today, we expect local equities to open slightly lower consolidating around current levels.

 

ECONOMY AND SECTOR NEWS

________________________________________

MoF sold RON300m in a reopening of 5-year T-Bonds maturing in 4 years at 3.10% avg yield /positive

The MoF managed to raise RON300m (EUR67.9m) in a reopening of 5-year T- Bonds maturing in 4 years yesterday, in line with the planned amount, at an avg yield of 3.10%. The bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.9x, while the avg yield was 22bps lower than the latest comparable auction on 16-Jun (bid-to-cover at 2.2x), when it stood at 3.32%

 

CORPORATE NEWS

________________________________________

SIF Oltenia <SIF5>

One group complied, but another two identified as acting in concert before the GSM on 28-Jul /neutral

A few days before the GSM, called for Monday to decide on the distribution of last year’s profits (either nothing or RON0.16/sh.), two groups were identified as acting in concert (ING and SIF Banat Crisana), while Erste-BCR group complied with the previous notice from the FSA (apr-2013) and dropped their holdings from c. 8.78% to below 5%. The ING group controls c. 6.1% of SIF5’s share capital, while the SIF1 group controls c. 5.7%. All votes above 5% are suspended for the purpose of the GSM on Monday.

 

Fondul Proprietatea <FP>

Completion of the third buy-back programme /neutral

The Fund Manager acquired 252,858,056 shares of the fund (2.02% of the Fund’s paid-in share capital) through daily acquisitions on the BSE. The total value of the buy-back programme was RON205,5m (excluding brokerage fees and other acquisition related costs), and the average price was approximately RON0.8125/sh. The Fund Manager will request shareholder approval for the cancellation of the shares repurchased during the third programme, at the next GSM. The intention is to continue with share buy-backs in accordance with the Fund’s IPS, and will start the fourth programme, approved by shareholders on 28 April 2014, as soon as the share capital decrease correspondent to cancellation of the shares repurchased in the second programme will become effective. As a reminder, the legal provisions in force require that the shareholders’ resolution for the approval of the change of the Constitutive Act for the share capital decrease has to be endorsed by the FSA in order to be effective. The FSA may issue the decision only after a legal term of two months elapses since the publication of the resolution in the Official Gazette, which was performed on 15 July 2014. Therefore, the response from the FSA on the endorsement is reasonably expected soon.

 

The Research Team BNG Securities

 

MARKET MONITOR BLUE ROCK:

Local stocks finished higher on Thursday, with share volumes of just RON 20.67m (EUR 4.68m). The BET index closed up 0.39%, at 6,955.11, while BET-FI advanced 0.62%, to 30,257.81. (Source: BSE)

 

Today’s call: We expect local stocks to trade slightly lower at the open. At 11:00 local time, investors will be watching the German Ifo Business Climate release for a forward looking view on the economy.

 

Economic news

 

No major macro releases are scheduled for release at home.

 

The MoF sold RON 300m in 2018 T-bonds at 3.1% avg yield /positive

The MoF managed to raise the planned RON 300m in an auction for T-bonds with a residual maturity of 4 years, at an avg yield of 3.1%, 22bps below the previous comparable auction on 16-Jun. The bid-to-cover ratio stood at 1.9x. (Source: BNR)

 

Corporate news

 

SIF Oltenia (SIF5) to publish 1H14 results today. (Source: BSE)

 

Nuclearelectrica (SNN): Candu Energy, CNPEC sign cooperation pact for Romania reactors –press /positive

Candu Energy and China Nuclear Power Engineering Company sign binding and exclusive cooperation agreement for construction of CANDU units 3 and 4 at Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant. According to Candu CEO Swafford cited by the Canadian press, the agreement that would double Romania’s nuclear power share to 40% is worth USD 6bn. (Source: Bloomberg)

 

Fondul Proprietatea (FP) announced the completion of the 252.9m share buyback /positive

The fund announced the completion of the 2.02% of paid sh. capital buyback, and informed that it will request shareholder approval for the cancellation of the shares repurchased at the next GSM. Also, the fund intends to start the fourth buyback program (approved of 28-Apr GSM) as soon as the share capital decrease correspondent to the cancellation of the shares repurchased in the second buyback program will become effective. Due to the fact that the FSA would have to approve a change in the constitutive act only after a legal term of 2 months after the publication of shareholders resolution in the Official Gazette, the fund expects a response shortly after 15-Sept. (Source: Company release)

 

Best regards,

Research team Blue Rock

 

 

 


Warren Buffett Bets on Big Oil. Is Exxon (NYSE: XOM) a Buy? (Monday, November 18th, 2013)

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Pe extern indicii sunt la maxime istorice … si par a se incapatana sa ramana acolo! Pe intern, dupa cresterea abrupta de dupa incheierea ofertei Romgaz (determinata de restul de bani ramasi investitorilor … dar si de entuziasmul/efuziunea de dupa “succesul” IPO-uril – succes masurat in gradul de suprasubscriere (in special pe transa mica!) … piata/indicii continua sa se tina neasteptat – zic eu! … de bine! Mai vine corectia?

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Va mai aduceti aminte, voi cei muritori de rand de prin piata de capital romaneasca … de modul neasteptat in care a venit anuntul privind inceperea ofertei Romgaz? Daca ne-am intrebat de ce (si sigur multi am facut-o la acel moment!) … acum avem si raspunsul! A venit repede doar pentru a apuca sa ia banii investitorilor inainte sa apara rezultatele si rapoartele la 9 luni … si inainte de intalnirea cu FMI – in care s-a luat decizia impozitarii “constructiilor speciale” … care vizeaz, intre altele, si infrastructura Romgaz ! Toate aceste informatii / date AU TOATE SANSELE SA FACA din MARELE SUCCES Romgaz … o MARE TEAPA!!!

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The financial crisis served to differentiate two types of investments–the ones that get bailed out and the ones that don’t. Investors naturally have a preference for the former. That means big banks can get cheap credit. And what does Basel tell them they can do with their cheap credit? Buy government bonds.

So what we have had over the past ten years is a massive exercise in credit allocation by the world’s bank regulators. They offer explicit and implicit guarantees to banks that invest in assets officially designated as low risk, and now they are shocked, shocked to find capital pouring into exactly those assets.

De citit si : Ce vrăji (mai) face statul banilor noştri?

De completat lectura cu: O dispută mai veche: este Statul un “manipulator” al pieţelor? Un comentariu nou: Aurelian Dochia

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The Shah Deniz consortium has begun evaluating final offers it has received from the Nabucco Gas Pipeline International and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) for transportation of Shah Deniz Stage 2 gas to Europe. The final decision on the European pipeline is expected to be made by end of June 2013.

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The latest (apparently) “sky is falling” event for the U.S. dollar is a plan to make the Chinese yuan and Australian dollar freely convertible into each other. BUT:

– the Chinese yuan is a long way from being convertible across the board because chinese exporters who receive U.S. dollars are forced to turn them over to the central bank. (This is how China built its $3 trillion in reserves.) Citizens can’t take it out of the country. The yuan is not accepted as legal tender anywhere outside of China.

– it will be a long, long time before China allows its currency to freely float, because its whole system is built on tightly controlling its value. If the yuan strengthened 10% in six months, millions of exporters already on razor-thin margins would go bust.

– it would also be a volatile currency because of the economies that are dependent on so many commodities.

– in addition, China’s weaknesses as a global safe haven are glaringly obvious. Two examples should suffice: all of its strategic industries are firmly in state hands; its judicial system is anything but independent.

– then there is significant political risk. China’s decision-making process is anything but transparent.

– in addition, its more aggressive posture on regarding territorial disputes with Japan and some Southeast Asian nations is also a bit disquieting.

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Prin urmare, economiile emergente au un potential semnificativ mai ridicat de crestere a PIB-ului decat economiile dezvoltate. Cert este insa ca, in ciuda unui mediu economic mai favorabil acestora – tot companiile din economiile dezvoltate sunt cele care inregistreaza rate de crestere a profiturilor mai mari.

Concluzia? Pare a fi mai tentant sa cumperi mari companii din statele/economiile dezvoltate – care poate au operatiuni in economiile emergente …. decat sa cumperi actiunile companiilor locale – chiar daca ai putea spune ca acestea din urma, adica cele din economiile emergente, au capacitatea de a profita mai mult si mai bine de cresterea economica din zona/tara careia-i apartin.

Paradoxul este insa pe deplin explicabil prin faptul ca, pe de o parte activitatile companiilor locale din economiile emergente sunt “bruiate” de tot felul de piedici generate de chestiuni precum coruptia, cadrul legislativ neclar sau instabil, etc etc (cum ar fi spre exemplu cazul Rusiei!) …. dar si de faptul ca, cea mai mare parte a acestora (sau cel putin companiile care prin dimensiuni, intr-adevar conteaza!) sunt companii de stat sau detinute majoritar de stat – care au alte prioritati decat realizarea de profituri pentru actionari (cum ar fi spre exemplu cazul Chinei – unde prioritara pentru companiile de stat este crearea de locuri de munca!).

Intr-un astfel de context, probabil ca intre beneficiarele fluxurilor internationale de capital ar putea fi companiile care sunt la limitele pozitive ale celor doua coordonate! Altfel spus, companiile din economii aflate intr-un eventual proces de asimilare a unui cadru juridic, administrativ, politic, etc – similar cadrului existent in economiile dezvoltate …. DAR care intrunesc totodata caracteristica de “piata nesaturata” specifica economiilor emergente …

Intre acestea, cred ca am putea introduce statele/economiile aflate acum “la marginea” Uniunii Europene …. si deci, si Romania …

Mai jos cateva extrase din materialul original din Financial Times … :

– US groups produced earnings growth of 4.3 per cent last year, according to JPMorgan. Emerging market competitors managed 3.7 per cent.

– Many big companies that weigh heavy on market indices, notably in China, are state-controlled and have priorities other than profit, such as job creation.

– Compared with the MSCI Emerging Market index on 12, the trailing p/e ratio for India is 17 and for Russia just 5.5. Russia is not necessarily a screaming buy – the figure reflects a tough investment environment.

– In price/earnings terms, emerging market stocks now trade at a discount to the US, with the MSCI emerging markets index on a trailing ratio of 12, compared with 15 for the S&P 500.

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GRAFIC SNPAsta arata graficul ….

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