Posts Tagged ‘emerging markets’


The OECD on Tuesday knocked almost half a percentage point off its forecasts for global growth this year and next, blaming a slowdown in emerging markets, brinkmanship over the US debt ceiling and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s tapering for the downgrade.

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While U.S. stocks are no longer cheap, most valuation metrics refute the notion that global equities are in a bubble. However, further gains are somewhat dependent on whether the Federal Reserve can engineer a gentle exit. If not, then stocks, particularly in the United States, are at risk of disappointing.

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Prin urmare, economiile emergente au un potential semnificativ mai ridicat de crestere a PIB-ului decat economiile dezvoltate. Cert este insa ca, in ciuda unui mediu economic mai favorabil acestora – tot companiile din economiile dezvoltate sunt cele care inregistreaza rate de crestere a profiturilor mai mari.

Concluzia? Pare a fi mai tentant sa cumperi mari companii din statele/economiile dezvoltate – care poate au operatiuni in economiile emergente …. decat sa cumperi actiunile companiilor locale – chiar daca ai putea spune ca acestea din urma, adica cele din economiile emergente, au capacitatea de a profita mai mult si mai bine de cresterea economica din zona/tara careia-i apartin.

Paradoxul este insa pe deplin explicabil prin faptul ca, pe de o parte activitatile companiilor locale din economiile emergente sunt “bruiate” de tot felul de piedici generate de chestiuni precum coruptia, cadrul legislativ neclar sau instabil, etc etc (cum ar fi spre exemplu cazul Rusiei!) …. dar si de faptul ca, cea mai mare parte a acestora (sau cel putin companiile care prin dimensiuni, intr-adevar conteaza!) sunt companii de stat sau detinute majoritar de stat – care au alte prioritati decat realizarea de profituri pentru actionari (cum ar fi spre exemplu cazul Chinei – unde prioritara pentru companiile de stat este crearea de locuri de munca!).

Intr-un astfel de context, probabil ca intre beneficiarele fluxurilor internationale de capital ar putea fi companiile care sunt la limitele pozitive ale celor doua coordonate! Altfel spus, companiile din economii aflate intr-un eventual proces de asimilare a unui cadru juridic, administrativ, politic, etc – similar cadrului existent in economiile dezvoltate …. DAR care intrunesc totodata caracteristica de “piata nesaturata” specifica economiilor emergente …

Intre acestea, cred ca am putea introduce statele/economiile aflate acum “la marginea” Uniunii Europene …. si deci, si Romania …

Mai jos cateva extrase din materialul original din Financial Times … :

– US groups produced earnings growth of 4.3 per cent last year, according to JPMorgan. Emerging market competitors managed 3.7 per cent.

– Many big companies that weigh heavy on market indices, notably in China, are state-controlled and have priorities other than profit, such as job creation.

– Compared with the MSCI Emerging Market index on 12, the trailing p/e ratio for India is 17 and for Russia just 5.5. Russia is not necessarily a screaming buy – the figure reflects a tough investment environment.

– In price/earnings terms, emerging market stocks now trade at a discount to the US, with the MSCI emerging markets index on a trailing ratio of 12, compared with 15 for the S&P 500.

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Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin American are tipped to drive growth in retail foreign exchange volumes, according to results of an industry survey by trading technology vendor Integral, published on February 14

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screen shot 2013-02-11 at 4.27.13 amAccording to the firm’s Bull & Bear Index, which tracks sentiment using indicators like hedge fund market exposure, fund flows, long-only investor positioning and so forth, investors are more bullish than they were in 99% of periods since 2002.

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London financial services are a highly productive sector, with value added per employee that is more than double the UK average. The UK’s trade surplus in financial services in 2010 was nearly £36bn – a figure lower than the £46bn achieved in 2008, but still a powerful contribution to balancing the UK’s negative balance of trade in goods. The most recent research shows that UK banks handle 19% of the total volume of global lending in emerging markets.

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