Posts Tagged ‘USD’


Un euro in scadere atat in raport cu dolarul american cat si in raport cu alte valute de referinta, scaderea pretului petrolului si programul de achizitie de active al Bancii Centrale Europene sunt doar cateva dintre elementele de sustinere a unui proces de recuperare pe care economia Eurozonei pare sa se inscrie tot mai hotarat.

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Who would have thought a decade ago that Brazil would now be one of the highest-­cost countries for manufacturing—or that Mexico could be cheaper than China? While London remains one of the priciest places in the world to live and visit, the UK has become the lowest-cost manufacturer in Western Europe. Costs in Russia and much of Eastern Europe have risen to near parity with the U.S.

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What happens when interest rates are “artificially” lowered below zero ? Denmark moved interest rates below zero in 2012. They are still below zero today. The European Central Bank has introduced a raft of measures aimed at stimulating the eurozone economy, including negative interest rates and cheap long-term loans to banks. It cut its deposit rate for banks from zero to -0.1%, to encourage banks to lend to businesses rather than hold on to money. What will happen then? You already know… Savers will get clobbered. People will borrow money. And asset prices will go up. So what should you do? Own assets. Own stocks and real estate, both in Europe and in the U.S.  I could be wrong of course. But I believe that this is still a time to be playing offense, not defense. There will be a day to play good defense. But we’re not there yet… In my opinion, now is a time to make money.

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Deși vizată în mod special prin cel de-al treilea val de sancțiuni impuse de Statele Unite și Uniunea Europeana, industria rusă de petrol și gaze (principala sursă de venituri la bugetul de stat), nu pare foarte afectată. Ba dimpotrivă s-ar putea spune, dacă sunt parcurse comunicatele companiilor europene și americane de petrol și gaze care par la fel de hotărâte ca întotdeauna să-și continue activitatea în Rusia. În același timp, în plan economic, în general, în urma măsurilor de răspuns adoptate de Rusia, mai degrabă Occidentul pare a fi acela ce are mai mult de pierdut de pe urma disputei. Dincolo de aparențe însă, efectele sancțiunilor asupra industriei și economiei ruse sunt din ce în ce mai puțin neglijabile, iar, pe termen lung, erodarea capacității industriei ruse de petrol și gaze de a juca un rol important pe piața internațională de profil pare inevitabilă.

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Rusia lucreaza la un proiect de lege prin care sa interzica cetatenilor sai mai detina dolari americani – moneda pe cale de disparitie a decadentei Americi – tara al carei sistem financiar, se afla pe marginea prapastiei. Scopul declarat al legii este protectia populatiei! Dar interdictia nu este valabila pentru institutiile statului ….

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In ultimii ani, China a devenit unul dintre cei mai importanti jucatori (daca nu chiar cel mai important !) de pe piata globala a aurului. Achizitiile masive de aur ale Chinei, dublate de achizitii deasemeni semnificative facute de entitati publice ale altor state considerate economii emergente (precum Rusia, Brazilia, India, Iran, etc – care au insa in comun si faptul – mult mai important – ca pun la indoiala stabilitatea sistemului financiar global bazat excesiv pe monedele marilor puteri occidentale traditionale, si faptul ca sunt contestatari majori ai politicilor hegemonice ale occidentului in plan financiar-monetar global) … sunt rezultatul gandirii unor “minti luminate” si sunt considerate de unii analisti ca semnale ale unei potentiale amenintari majore pentru civilizatia cladita pe valorile si sistemele occidentale. Si asta pentru ca scindarea sistemului financiar global in doua (occident vs emergente) si o rivalitate intre acestea este vazuta ca o amenintare pentru marile puteri occidentale … Cine sunt oamenii care se afla asadar in spatele politicilor Chinei cu privire la gestionarea relatiei dintre sistemul financiar si aur … mai jos:

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The European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China have established a currency swap agreement, the latest in a string of moves to help encourage global use of the renminbi.

The swap line, at Rmb350bn ($57bn), will be China’s third largest after its facilities with Hong Kong and South Korea, and follows similar agreements with the UK, Australia and Brazil.

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Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong establishes the People’s Republic of China in Beijing on October 1 after peasant-backed Communists defeat the Nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek.

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De ce ar trebui sa fim optimisti?

With open economies heavily geared to a eurozone recovery and cheaper wage costs, central Europe is still expected to grow faster than western Europe.

“The growth difference still stands,” says Herbert Stepic, chief executive of Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, one of the biggest operators in central Europe. “We see a growth difference for 2013 of about two percentage points between CEE as a whole and the EU.”

Other heads of big banks in the region share this cautious optimism. “We still consider CEE to be the driving engine for the growth of our group,” says Gianni Franco Papa, head of the CEE division of Italy’s UniCredit.

Central and eastern Europe to outpace west as lenders think local

The shadows that gathered last year over central and eastern Europe (CEE) have, little by little, started to recede.

This time a year ago, the eurozone debt problems were weighing heavily on sentiment, with talk of a possible “Grexit” – a Greek exit – from the eurozone that could tear the single currency apart.

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The euro’s challenge to the international status of the US dollar has been set back a generation as new data show developing countries dumping the European currency from their official reserves.

Central banks in developing countries sold €45bn of euros in 2012, according to data compiled by the International Monetary Fund, cutting their holdings of the currency by 8 per cent.

Euros now make up only 24 per cent of their reserves, the lowest since 2002, and down from a peak of 31 per cent as recently as 2009. The dollar has held steady at about 60 per cent.

Developing countries have shifted instead into other currencies such as Australian dollars and those of fellow emerging markets. The euro’s share of total global reserves has also fallen.

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